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Great post: Productivity gains in software engineering are powering innovation
Software engineers today are about 200-400% more productive than software engineers were 10 years ago because of open source software, better programming tools, common libraries, easier access to information, better education, and other factors. This means that one engineer today can do what 3-5 people did in 1999!
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In my 15 years of software development, I’ve seen 5x-10x productivity gains in engineers. Which could mean that the productivity of a well-trained engineer doubles every five years. (note that this Law is much harder to prove than Moore’s Law – but potentially just as profound). That would mean that the productivity of an engineer is growing at roughly 14.9% per year! That’s fast … really fast … much faster than the 2.6% yearly gains the population as a whole is making.
What do you think? I definitely see a huge improvement of productivity in web application software development myself.
Related: 10x Productivity Difference in Software Development - Is Productivity Growth Bad - The Software Developer Labor Market - Myths of Manufacturing Productivity
With wild fish stocks declining precipitously around the globe, thanks to overfishing and climate change, aquaculture has emerged as perhaps the only viable way to satisfy the world’s appetite for fish fingers and maki rolls. In the next few years, consumption of farm-raised fish will surpass that caught in the wild for the first time, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. But most fish farms — even ones heralded as “sustainable” — create as many problems as they solve, from fecal contamination to the threat that escaped cultivated fish pose to the gene pool of their wild cousins.
Veta la Palama is different. In 1982, the family that owns the Spanish food conglomerate Hisaparroz bought wetlands that had been drained for cattle-farming and reflooded them. “They used the same channels built originally to empty water into the Atlantic,” explains Medialdea. “Just reversed the flow.” Today, that neat little feat of engineering allows the tides to sweep in estuary water, which a pumping station distributes throughout the farm’s 45 ponds. Because it comes directly from the ocean, that water teems with microalgae and tiny translucent shrimp, which provide natural food for the fish that Veta la Palma raises.
By hewing as closely as possible to nature, the farm avoids many of the problems that that plague other aquaculture projects. Low density — roughly 9 lb. (4 kg) of fish to every 35 cu. ft. (1 cu m) of water — helps keep the fish free of parasites (the farm loses only 0.5% of its annual yield to them). And the abundant plant life circling each pond acts as a filter, cleansing the water of nitrogen and phosphates.
Related: Rethinking the Food Production System - Fishless Future - Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants. - Running Out of Fish
photo of hanging flume overlook in Colorado, by John Hunter, Creative Commons Attribution.___________________
While driving from Dinosaur National Monument to Mesa Verde National Park last year I passed the sight above with the remnants of a hanging flume. The Montrose Placer Mining Company built a 13 mile canal and flume to deliver water from the San Miguel River for gold mining operations. The last 5 miles of the flume clung to the wall of the canyon itself, running along the cliff face in the photo above (see more photos).
Constructed between 1888 and 1891, the 4 foot deep 5 foot 4 inch wide hanging flume carried 23,640,000 gallons of water in a 24 hour period. The mining operations used water and sluice boxes to separate the gold from lighter materials (dirt and gravel).
The technology was not yet available to pump the water directly from the river at the necessary volume and pressure to wash the gold from the gravel, therefore they constructed the flume to transport the water.
Related: Mount Saint Helens Photos - photos of Manhattan (Rockefeller Center, Empire State Building…) - C&O Towpath - Monocacy Aqueduct to Calico Rocks
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Chart showing global installed wind energy capacity by Curious Cat Science and Engineering Blog, Creative Commons Attribution. Data from World Wind Energy Association, for installed Mega Watts of global wind power capacity._________________________
Globally 27,339 MW of capacity were added in 2008, bringing the total to 121,188 MW, a 29% increase. The graph shows the top 10 producers (with the exceptions of Denmark and Portugal) and includes Japan (which is 13th).
In 2007, Europe had for 61% of installed capacity and the USA 18%. At the end of 2008 Europe had 55% of installed capacity, North America 23%, Asia 20%, Australia 1.5%, Latin America .6% and Africa .5%. Country shares of global capacity at the end of 2008: USA 21%, Germany 20%, Spain 14%, China 10%, India 8% (those 5 countries account for 73% of global capacity).
USA capacity grew 50% in 2008, moving it into the global lead for the first time in a decade. China grew 107%, the 3rd year in a row it more than doubled capacity.
Related: Wind Power Provided Over 1% of Global Electricity in 2007 - USA Wind Power Installed Capacity 1981 to 2005 - Wind Power has the Potential to Produce 20% of Electricity by 2030 - Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007
Elsevier is one of those publishers fighting open science. They try to claim that the government publishing government funded research in an open way will tarnish science. The argument makes no sense to me. Here is another crazy action on their part: they published a “journal” funded by Merck to promote Merck products. Merck Makes Phony Peer-Review Journal:
As I have said the journals fighting open science should have their credibility questioned. They are putting their outdated business model above science. We should not see organizations that are focused on closing science research through deceptive publicity efforts and lobbying efforts as credible.
Related: From Ghost Writing to Ghost Management in Medical Journals - Merck Faked a Research Journal - Medical Study Integrity (or Lack Thereof) - The Future of Scholarly Publication - Fresh questions raised about prominent cardiologist’s role in “ghostwritten” 2001 meta-analysis of Vioxx trials - Science Commons: Making Scientific Research Re-useful - Publishers Continue to Fight Open Access to Science - Misleading or Deceptive Conduct - Peter Suber Response to Rep. Conyers
The barriers between countries, related to jobs, are decreasing. Jobs are more international today than 20 years ago and that trend will continue. People are going to move to different countries to do jobs (especially in science, engineering and advanced technology). The USA has a good market on those jobs (for many reasons). But there is nothing that requires those jobs to be in the USA.
The biggest impact of the USA turning away great scientists and engineers will be that they go to work outside the USA and increase the speed at which the USA loses its place as the leading location for science, engineering and technology work. This is no longer the 1960’s. Back then those turned away by the USA had trouble finding work elsewhere that could compete with the work done in the USA. If the USA wants to isolate ourselves (with 5% of the population) from a fairly open global science and engineering job market, other countries will step in (they already are trying, realizing what a huge economic benefit doing so provides).
Those other countries will be able to put together great centers of science and engineering innovation. Those areas will create great companies that create great jobs. I can understand wanting this to be 1960, but wanting it doesn’t make it happen.
You could go even further and shut off science and engineering students access to USA universities (which are the best in the world). That would put a crimp in plans for a very short while. Soon many professors would move to foreign schools. The foreign schools would need those professors, and offer a great deal of pay. And those professors would need jobs as their schools laid off professors as students disappeared. Granted the best schools and best professors could stay in the USA, but plenty of very good ones would leave.
I just don’t think the idea of closing off the companies in the USA from using foreign workers will work. We are lucky now that, for several reasons, it is still easiest to move people from Germany, India, Korea, Mexico and Brazil all to the USA to work on advanced technology projects. The advantage today however, is much much smaller than it was 30 years ago. Today just moving all those people to some other location, say Singapore, England, Canada or China will work pretty well (and 5 years from now will work much better in whatever locations start to emerge as the leading alternative sites). Making the alternative of setting up centers of excellence outside the USA more appealing is not a good strategy for those in the USA wanting science, engineering and computer programming jobs. We should instead do what we can to encourage more companies in the USA that are centralizing technology excellence in the USA.
Comment on Reddit discussion.
Related: Science and Engineering in Global Economics - Global technology job economy - Countries Should Encourage Immigration of Technology Workers - The Software Developer Labor Market - What Graduates Should Know About an IT Career - Relative Engineering Economic Positions - China’s Technology Savvy Leadership - Education, Entrepreneurship and Immigration - The Future is Engineering - Global Technology Leadership
Honda’s Robolegs Help People Walk
Related: Honda Engineering - Robotic Prosthetic Arms for People - Toyota Winglet - Personal Transportation - Honda has Never had Layoffs and has been Profitable Every Year - Another Humanoid Robot
Robots Lend a Hand in Japan by Tony McNicol
Mental service robots on the other hand are already here. One of the best known is Paro, an interactive robot seal designed by Shibata himself. The sophisticated robot can remember its name and change its behavior depending on how it is treated. It has been extensively tested in homes for elderly people and in hospitals. In 2002 the Guinness Book of Records named Paro as “the world’s most therapeutic robot.” The robot reminds patients of the pets or children they once cared for, says Shibata. “Paro is a kind of trigger to provoke something in the mind of the owner,” he suggests. About 1,000 of the robots, which cost about 3,000 dollars, have been produced since 2004. Overseas sales will begin shortly.
The effective use of personal robots finally seems to be fairly close at hand. Undoubtedly the initial attempts will seem limited. See Clayton Christsen’s ideas on disruptive innovation for an understanding of how I think the adoption will play out. Robots will be poor substitutes for other alternatives but as we experiment with how to make them effective we will figure out niches for which they work well. It is hard to predict what will happen but my feeling is we may finally be a the point where real uses of personal robots stat to take hold and then the growth may surprise us.
Related: Toyota Winglet - Personal Transportation - A Robot to Clean Your Room - Robot Finds Lost Shoppers and Provides Directions - The Robotic Dog - Toyota Partner Robots - Robotic Prosthetic Arms for People
The USA continues to lose ground, in retaining the relative science and engineering strength it has retained for the last 50 plus years. As I have said before this trend is nearly inevitable - the challenge for the USA is to reduce the speed of their decline in relative position.
A new open access report, Losing the World’s Best and Brightest, explores the minds of current foreign science and engineering students that are studying in the USA. This is another in the list of reports on similar topics by Vivek Wadhwa and Richard Freeman. And again they point out the long term economic losses the USA is setting up by failing to retain the talent trained at our universities. It is a problem for the USA and a great benefit for countries like India and China.
“Foreign students receive nearly 60% of all engineering doctorates and more than half of all mathematics, computer sciences, physics and economics doctorates awarded in the United States. These foreign nationals end up making jobs, not taking jobs,” said Wadhwa. “They bring insights into growing global markets and fresh ideas. Research has shown that they even end up boosting innovation by U.S. inventors. Losing them is an economic tragedy.”
According to the study’s findings, very few foreign students would like to stay in the United States permanently—only 6% of Indian, 10 percent of Chinese and 15% of Europeans. And fewer foreign students than the historical norm expressed interest in staying in the United States after they graduate. Only 58% of Indian, 54% of Chinese and 40% of European students wish to stay for several years after graduation. Previous National Science Foundation research has shown 68% of foreigners who received science and engineering doctorates stayed for extended periods of time, including 73% of those who studied computer science. The five-year minimum stay rate was 92% for Chinese students and 85% for Indian students.
The vast majority of foreign student and 85% of Indians and Chinese and 72% of Europeans are concerned about obtaining work visas. 74% of Indians, 76% of Chinese, and 58% of Europeans are also worried about obtaining jobs in their fields. Students appear to be less concerned about getting permanent-resident visas than they are about short-term jobs. Only 38% of Indian students, 55% of Chinese, and 53% of Europeans expressed concerns about obtaining permanent residency in the USA.
On the tonight show yesterday, President Obama said
And if we’re rewarding those kinds of things that actually contribute to making things and making people’s lives better, that’s going to put our economy on solid footing. We won’t have this kind of bubble-and-bust economy that we’ve gotten so caught up in for the last several years.
Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, recently expressed his frustration with the policies discouraging science and engineering graduates staying in the USA after they complete their education.
Related: Invest in Science for a Strong Economy - Science, Engineering and the Future of the American Economy - USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates - Losing scientists and engineers will reduce economic performance of the USA - Diplomacy and Science Research
It is easy with the existing economic news to think things are bleak everywhere. But even within the current climate companies find success. Founded in 1993, FreeWave Technologies is a world leader in the innovative design and manufacture of ISM Band radios and wireless data solutions. Their data-transmitting radios span the globe from the Middle East to Mount Everest; from the Amazon Rainforest to Antarctica to New York. They are used by defense contractors, oil and gas companies, city and county municipalities and industrial manufacturers.
Hedy Lamarr from the trailer for the film Boom Town, 1940FreeWave’s data radios are based on Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum Technology. Spread Spectrum was originally created for the U.S. Navy during World War II to prevent the Germans from “jamming” American radio transmissions for radio-guided torpedoes. The technology was invented by Hedy Lamar, a famous movie star of the 1940’s. The original radios contained a roll of paper slotted like a player piano to cause channel switching. Hedy’s close friend, Inventor/Musician George Antheil, designed the first successful synchronization device that brought Hedy’s idea to fruition. In 1941, Hedy and George were granted a U.S. patent for the first “Secret Communications System.” The original system used merely 88 frequencies. Today, the switching is controlled in embedded firmware code that enables a radio to change frequencies hundreds of times per second and use more than 100 channels.
Engineering these radios is something the company takes quite seriously. And hiring the best talent is part of this philosophy. Every single employee considers it his/her job to ensure that customers receive top-notch service seven days a week. This extends all the way through the organization up to senior management. FreeWave is so dedicated to making its customers front and center that it provides 24-hour technical support – even rotating senior management to be on call at nights and on the weekends.
The privately held company is based in Boulder, Colorado, the company offers network design, pre-installation engineering services and manufactures its own radios (manufacturing them in Boulder).
FreeWave’s increase in revenues of 112 percent from 2003 to 2007. The company has paid this bonus every six months since the first one was paid in July 1995. Over the past year, FreeWave has invested in expanding its facility to accommodate more staff; growing its manufacturing space and capabilities; dedicating more resources and technology to its product development; increasing its customer and partner training; and, investing in marketing and sales.
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Eric Schmidt, March 6th, 2009 interview by Charlie Rose:
Related: Eric Schmidt on Management at Google - Eric Schmidt Podcast on Google Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Larry Page and Sergey Brin Interview - Marissa Mayer Webcast on Google Innovation - Larry Page on How to Change the World
Photograph by Peter Essick, National GeographicThis is a good article by National Geographic. We need energy. We also need to protect the environment. The trade-offs societies decide to make are often not easy. But open discussion of the issues is important.
Related: Wind Power Provided Over 1% of Global Electricity in 2007 - 59 MPG Toyota iQ Diesel - Solar Thermal in Desert, to Beat Coal by 2020 - Bigger Impact: 15 to 18 mpg or 50 to 100 mpg?
Science wins big in US economic plan
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. And short term spikes in funding are problematic for numerous reasons. But I have long argued for the value of investing in science and engineering excellence for long term economic benefit. I am worried the government will fail to provide adequate strategic thought to investments.
Today is Martin Luther King Day in the USA: Watch the entire I Have a Dream Speech.
Related: Science and Engineering in Global Economics - Engineering the Future Economy - The Future is Engineering - China and USA Basic Science Research - Tapping America’s Potential
Self Adjusting Glasses for 1 billion of the world’s poorest see better
More than two decades after posing that question, Josh Silver [a physics professor at Oxford] now feels he has the answer. The British inventor has embarked on a quest that is breathtakingly ambitious, but which he insists is achievable - to offer glasses to a billion of the world’s poorest people by 2020.
Some 30,000 pairs of his spectacles have already been distributed in 15 countries, but to Silver that is very small beer. Within the next year the now-retired professor and his team plan to launch a trial in India which will, they hope, distribute 1 million pairs of glasses. The target, within a few years, is 100 million pairs annually.
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Silver has devised a pair of glasses which rely on the principle that the fatter a lens the more powerful it becomes. Inside the device’s tough plastic lenses are two clear circular sacs filled with fluid, each of which is connected to a small syringe attached to either arm of the spectacles.
The wearer adjusts a dial on the syringe to add or reduce amount of fluid in the membrane, thus changing the power of the lens. When the wearer is happy with the strength of each lens the membrane is sealed by twisting a small screw, and the syringes removed. The principle is so simple, the team has discovered, that with very little guidance people are perfectly capable of creating glasses to their own prescription.
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Oxford University, at his instigation, has agreed to host a Centre for Vision in the Developing World, which is about to begin working on a World Bank-funded project with scientists from the US, China, Hong Kong and South Africa. “Things are never simple. But I will solve this problem if I can. And I won’t really let people stand in my way.”
Cool. A couple points I would like to make:
1) this professor is making a much bigger difference in the “real world” than most people ever will. The idea that professors are all lost in insignificant “ivory towers” is a very inaccurate view of what really happens.
2) Spending money on this kind of thing seems much more important for the human race than spending trillions to bail out poor moves by bankers, financiers… It sure seems odd that we can’t find a few billion to help out people across the globe that are without basic necessities yet we can find trillions to bail out the actions of few thousand bad actors.
Related: Adaptive Eyecare - Bringing Eye Care to Thousands in India - River Blindness Worm Develops Resistance to Drugs - Strawjet: Invention of the Year (2006) - Fixing the World on $2 a Day - Appropriate Technology
Texas in danger of losing global race
Fortunately, there are programs already proven successful in preventing the loss of highly qualified math and science teachers, such as UTeach, a teacher training and support program launched at The University of Texas at Austin in 1997.
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The Academy of Medicine, Engineering and Science of Texas — made up of Texas’ Nobel Laureates and National Academies members — has proposed four practical, actionable recommendations for state leaders to adopt, putting Texas on the path to world-class math and science education for our children, and a prosperous future for our state.
Related: $12.5 Million NSF For Educating High School Engineering Teachers - The Importance of Science Education - FIRST Robotics in Minnesota - USA Teens 29th in Science
A talking head with some valuable info. I remember my father (a statistics professor) getting me to understand this as a small child (about 6 years old). The concept of growth and mathematical compounding is an important idea to understand as you think and learn about the world. It also is helpful so you understand that statistics don’t lie but ignorant people can draw false conclusions from limited data.
It is unclear if Einstein really said this but he is often quoted as saying “compounding is the most powerful force in the universe.” Whether he did or not, understanding this simple concept is a critical component of numeracy (literacy with numbers). Also quoted at times as: “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.” My guess is that people just find the concept of compounding amazing and then attribute quotes about it to Einstein.
I strongly encourage you to watch at least the first 2 segments (a total of 15 minutes). And then take some time and think. Take some time to think about compounding in ways to help you internalize the concepts. You can also read his book: The Essential Exponential For the Future of Our Planet by Albert Bartlett.
Related: Playing Dice and Children’s Numeracy - Saving for Retirement (compound interest) - Bigger Impact: 15 to 18 mpg or 50 to 100 mpg? - Sexy Math - The Economic Benefits of Math
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