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How accurately the data reflects the situation is something that must always be considered: data is a proxy for something. All models are wrong, some are useful - George Box.
A very interesting report has been published by Duke’s Pratt Engineering School: Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate by: Dr. Gary Gereffi and Vivek Wadhwa - Primary Student Researchers: Ben Rissing, Kiran Kalakuntla, Soomi Cheong, Qi Weng, Nishanth Lingamneni. I strongly recommend reading this report. Report Appendix with data:
The report puts the 2004 figures, based on their operational definition of a engineering degree at:
USA: 222,335
India: 215,000
China: 644,106
The fact that there are fewer equivalent degrees in India and China doesn’t amaze me. Tripling the degrees in America does surprise me. If I understand the report this is due to including IT and computer science degrees (that are included in China and India counts) and including subbaccalaureate degrees (also included by China and India). In practice, US data includes some IT and CS degrees as engineering and some not (depending on how the school classifies them I believe).
These types of distinctions are exactly the type of additional information that can be very important to consider when drawing conclusions based on data. While agree that looking at the percentage of the population is worthwhile, I think the report may over emphasis this measure. If looking at how much engineering ability China and India are bringing online what is most interesting is the absolute measure of that capability. However, this is a minor point and overall this is a great report. I wrote about this some previously (Worldwide Science and Engineering Doctoral Degree Data and Engineering Education and Innovation). I wonder what the percentages are for countries like Korea, Singapore and some in Europe?
An import figure and one that will be interesting to track going forward, my belief is it will have to go down (even if the totals increase in the USA they will not increase as fast as China and India and probably not as fast as the world overall - but that is merely speculation). And the report closes with:
Well put.
Links to stories on the report:
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January 10th, 2006 at 9:29 pm
[...] Filling the Engineering Gap by Vivek Wadhwa, an update on the previous post: USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates. In this article Vivek Wadhwa writes: So what should be done? Further research is needed on a subject of such critical national importance. The Duke study was a small step toward establishing certain baseline facts and reliable statistics. As Professor Ausubel notes, if a team of engineering students can accomplish so much within a semester, why not the experts and analysts? [...]
February 22nd, 2006 at 8:13 pm
[...] It is good to see more people using the data from the Duke study we have mentioned previously: USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates - Filling the Engineering Gap. However, I think he misses a big change. It seems to me that the absolute number of graduates each year is the bigger story than that the United States has not lost the percentage of population rate of science and engineering graduates yet. China significantly exceeds the US and that India is close to the US currently in science and engineering graduates. And the trend is dramatically in favor of those countries. [...]
March 7th, 2006 at 5:28 pm
[...] This article discusses the Duke study (USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates) proposing an adjustment to the numbers used for comparing engineering education results of the United States, China and India. Like Wadhwa, Johnson suggested that the recent emphasis on increasing the number of engineers in America should take a back seat to promoting quality. “The fact there may be X, Y or Z number of [science and engineering graduates] floating around, doesn’t necessarily speak to the question of does that represent the actual high level high skill innovative talent American industries are looking for,” he said. [...]
May 3rd, 2006 at 6:18 pm
[...] It is also interesting to note, this Business Week article uses the “China and India, the new global tech powerhouses, are fueled by 900,000 engineering graduates of all types each year, more than triple the number of U.S. grads.” stats even though this article specifically tracks a Duke team and Business Week published several articles on the Duke study, USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates, that refutes those numbers. [...]
May 19th, 2006 at 11:22 am
[...] the number of engineering undergraduate students in Mexico surprises me; this is one more indication of how many people see the value of engineering education. [...]
May 24th, 2006 at 8:48 am
[...] Vivek Wadhwa has continued the work published in the Duke study: Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate. In the testimony he provides an update on the data provided in the report. Contrary to the popular view that India and China have an abundance of engineers, recent studies show that both countries may actually face severe shortages of dynamic engineers. The vast majority of graduates from these counties have the qualities of transactional engineers. [...]
June 14th, 2006 at 12:54 pm
[...] Once again they quote the 600,000; 400,000 and 70,000 figures which the Duke University study shows is misleading. Still the short article provides some interesting information. Also the comment section shows the Duke study is beginning to seep into the public consciousness. [...]
June 26th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
[...] I just added a post, USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates, to our Curious Cat Science and Engineering Blog on a new report from Duke concerning data on engineering degrees from China, India and the USA: Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate. I think it is a great report. If you have any interest in this topic I strongly recommend it. [...]
July 1st, 2006 at 2:07 pm
[...] See: USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates Even if the U.S. has a smaller percentage of the world’s engineers, it will be able to compete because its engineers will be the managers of complex global interactions. In the final analysis, it’s the quality of engineer that counts, not the quantity. [...]
July 16th, 2006 at 11:37 pm
[...] USA Under-counting Engineering Graduates by curiouscat Tags: Engineering, Science, Education, Economics, Career, quote Permalink to: Engineers in the Workplace [...]
August 13th, 2006 at 8:23 pm
[...] Another article discussing the need to focus on science and engineering education in the USA and the United Kingdom. It is nice to see the Duke study has worked its way into most recent articles. Being in the field “teaches you to be flexible and ruthlessly creative,” says Pearson. Indeed, Richard K. Miller, president of Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering in Massachusetts, which graduated its first class in May, says it’s crucial to get students to think “outside the box” and work in teams. “Our future doesn’t depend on producing more engineers than China. [We] need more innovators,” he says. “Engineering is about invention.” [...]
August 19th, 2006 at 9:40 am
highlights from the 2006 rankings of Top 500 Universities worldwide include…
September 4th, 2006 at 3:07 pm
The U.S. Edge In Education by Richard H. Brodhead, president of Duke University…
November 25th, 2006 at 9:58 pm
the United States is not the only country that realizes it is a great things for your economy to have highly skilled people who can provide high value and receive high compensation. The benefits of highly skilled people to an economy is huge…
January 28th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
[...] “China is mobilising massive resources for innovation through ambitious long-term plans, funded by rapid economic growth. Beijing’s university district produces as many engineers as all of western Europe.” [...]
April 11th, 2007 at 5:16 pm
Right on - back when I was in school and shopping for a school to attend for my ROTC degree, I had to be in an “engineering degree”. I wasn’t the best at math but I did enjoy computers. However, most schools still had computer science outside the engineering department. I eventually found a school that did, but there are probably thousands of students that were responsible for building some of the most valuable web properties today that graduated from schoool without being labeled as official “engineers” - thanks for deconstructing the stats. As much as I rely on stats, I sure do hate ‘em sometimes
June 13th, 2007 at 8:44 am
“52 percent of immigrant founders initially came to the United States primarily for higher education, 40 percent entered the country because of a job opportunity, 6 percent came for family reasons, and only 2 percent to start a business…”
July 10th, 2007 at 11:45 am
The most critical issue to remember from an economic perspective is having entrepreneurial engineers can drive economic growth and pave the way for many others to have great job and great investing returns in their company…