Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
Posted on September 3, 2005 Comments (2)
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False by John P. A. Ioannidis
A finding from a well-conducted, adequately powered randomized controlled trial starting with a 50% pre-study chance that the intervention is effective is eventually true about 85% of the time. A fairly similar performance is expected of a confirmatory meta-analysis of good-quality randomized trials: potential bias probably increases, but power and pre-test chances are higher compared to a single randomized trial.