Science and Engineering: Innovation, Research, Education and Economics
November 13, 2008
Google Flu Leading Indicator

Google Flu Trends

During the 2007-2008 flu season, an early version of Google Flu Trends was used to share results each week with the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the Influenza Division at CDC. Across each of the nine surveillance regions of the United States, we were able to accurately estimate current flu levels one to two weeks faster than published CDC reports.

So why bother with estimates from aggregated search queries? It turns out that traditional flu surveillance systems take 1-2 weeks to collect and release surveillance data, but Google search queries can be automatically counted very quickly. By making our flu estimates available each day, Google Flu Trends may provide an early-warning system for outbreaks of influenza.

For epidemiologists, this is an exciting development, because early detection of a disease outbreak can reduce the number of people affected. If a new strain of influenza virus emerges under certain conditions, a pandemic could emerge and cause millions of deaths (as happened, for example, in 1918). Our up-to-date influenza estimates may enable public health officials and health professionals to better respond to seasonal epidemics and — though we hope never to find out — pandemics.

This is an interesting example of finding new ways to quickly access what is happening in the world. Google must be doing significant amounts of similar things to see how usage patterns can server as a leading indicator.

Related: Study Shows Why the Flu Likes Winter - Tracking flu trends - Reducing the Impact of a Flu Pandemic - Data Deluge Aids Scientists

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