Curious Cat Science and Engineering Blog » Seeing Patterns Where None Exists

February 20, 2007

Seeing Patterns Where None Exists

I call data dredge studies the “Rorschach tests” of epidemiology, because researchers can pull out characteristics about people in almost unlimited combinations to find all sorts of correlations and conclude just about anything they set out to find. Just like the Rorschach test, seeing patterns where none exists, finding connections that are there but not as strongly as believed, and seeing what one expects to see, are common.

Page 8 of Statistics for Experiments by George Box, Willliam Hunter (my father) and Stu Hunter (no relation) shows a graph of the population (of people) versus the number of storks which shows a high correlation. “Although in this example few would be led to hypothesize that the increase in the number of storks caused the observed increase in population, investigators are sometimes guilty of this kind of mistake in other contexts.” And some might make it in this context

by curiouscat Tags: Math, Science, Students
Permalink to: Seeing Patterns Where None Exists Trackback: http://engineering.curiouscatblog.net/2007/02/20/seeing-patterns-where-none-exists/trackback/

4 Responses to “Seeing Patterns Where None Exists”

CuriousCat: Mistakes in Experimental Design and Interpretation Says:
June 19th, 2007 at 8:59 am
We have tendencies that lead us to draw faulty conclusions from data. Given that it is important to understand what common mistakes are made to help us counter the natural tendencies…
Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog » Fooled by Randomness Says:
October 30th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
When people are asked to explain random variations in data they will make up special causes (that they often even believe are special causes even when they are not) but you can improve management a great deal by just stopping the requirement to “explain” common cause variation…
Curious Cat » Bigger Impact: 15 to 18 mpg or 50 to 100 mpg? Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
I must admit, when I first read the quote I thought that it must be an wrong. But there is the math. You save 111 gallons improving from 15 mpg to 18 mpg and just 100 improving from 50 to 100 mpg…
CuriousCat: 500 Year Floods Says:
July 13th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
actually having a 500 year flood actually increases the odds for it happening again (because the data now includes that case which had not been included before)…