Posted on November 14, 2005  Comments (2)

Insight 2005: A Survey of U.S. Technology Innovators.

Some details from a survey of approximately 4,000 electronics engineers in the United States:

Certainly not very comforting data.

There certainly seems to be agreement that the declining research and development expenditures and engineers receiving degrees are setting the stage for problems in the future.

I am not sure why so few seem to point to another factor that I see as the most important factor. The United States was in a position after World War II that allowed the country to gain a much larger role than otherwise would have been reasonable (the United States also took many actions that lead to the success such as a huge effort in math ans science education, large investments by the federal government in engineering innovation, a economic system that encouraged scientific and engineering innovation…).

Others countries have seen the great benefits the United States realized from advanced science and engineering capabilities. Asia and Europe have invested heavily in gaining such advantages for themselves. Those investments are bearing fruit and this trend will only increase going forward.

The United States is going to lose ground on a relative basis. Still it makes sense to try and retain as much advantage as is possible. But the idea that the United States can retain a 1970 relative position is unrealistic; in fact retaining the current relative position is unrealistic.

The hope some retained that the United States would retain the highest end work and others would work on the less complex work is not what the future holds. The future will prove to be an international marketplace where the United States is a significant but not dominant player. That future can still be bright but it requires a different vision than one in which American dominance is taken as a given.

The future is also dangerous as changes will continue to be dramatic and quick. If the Untied States fails to take effective action the risks to the economy are significant.